[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZquTqoyc3k[/embedyt] First off, neither the financial markets nor anyone we know had anything close to this in their 2025 Trump 2.0 playbook and his economic plan.  While the economy was slowing all 2h24, the markets thought Trump 2.0 would lead off with some pro-growth and pro-deregulation in November 2024 post-election.  Those thoughts quickly morphed…

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9PYRR-wI_c[/embedyt] First off, neither the financial markets nor anyone we know had anything close to this in their 2025 Trump 2.0 playbook and his economic plan.  Yes, the markets were expecting higher uncertainty from the US reciprocal tariffs. The market was pricing in about 10% across the board global tariffs into last Wednesday so…

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tEYLzUIoNN4[/embedyt] I’ve been asked a number of times why I focus so much on real time real interest rates?  Which is the spread between nominal interest rates and real time breakeven inflation interest rates?  It’s the premium a Treasury bond investor demands above inflation for holding US Treasury bonds. This will be a quick…

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsDHT2aOCtc[/embedyt] Investors, this week we are back to charts and data series. Most will come in a quick rapid fire without lots of discussion, but most of them say the same thing.  While uncomfortable and near historically quick, the recent -10%+ decline in the S&P500 has not yet said the bull market for US…

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3-wcva2Mucw[/embedyt] Investors, in the next 10-15 minutes we are going to dive into a few things our team looks at in the markets that historically have led to market moves.  Several of them are just fun historical facts that keep repeating, and others are the usual real time data series that our team keeps…

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxF9b6jx5QQ[/embedyt] Investors, there are no guarantees in the stock market, and the first two months of 2025 are proving that a lesson to those who just entered the markets the last 2 years and enjoyed +20% returns.  It’s been a sloppy, choppy mess which while uncomfortable to those watching day to day or week…

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzr7XYhDWKU[/embedyt] I forgot to warn all our followers that I was taking a few days off in NYC late last week and most years when I do this if February, the markets sell off hard.  Well, looks like history repeated as the S&P 500 sold off in a near straight line down last Friday…

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OH9d8aNEx6E[/embedyt] I know last week’s video was a bit of a downer.  Bringing bads news percolating behind the scenes in the economy that many in the media won’t tell you about.  This week, it’s back to, good news, yes Virginia there is a Santa Claus, and he’s riding his sleigh in a bull market…

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LD2RRHxr-9c[/embedyt] I’m here to break some news most on financial TV or in the media don’t know or won’t tell you. The American economy is slowing, which is normal after the consumer led holiday season, however it’s slowing pretty rapidly.  As usual, Ill give you a little real time data as well as warn…

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LqoAPIzLug[/embedyt] I’m trying to keep this one short as last week was a blur with loads of earnings calls and Oak Harvests first half market summit last Thursday night.  There’s a link in the description below to the portion of the event we livestreamed over YouTube for clients and one-line guests. We covered a…