Stock Market Update, Friday July 18, 2025: NOTHING but NET

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If you have been following Oak Harvest and our investment commentary for any time, let alone for the last 5+ years we’ve been posting publicly, its safe to say, you’re aware of my love of the study of stock and economic cycles and market history including Presidential cycles and seasonal trading behavior in the markets.  Why do these things keep working out more often than not?  Most likely because most investors are creators of habit, and when certain external stimulus hits, they repeat their emotional behaviors and investment actions in similar fashions time and time again.

The investment team at OHFG had been discussing the likely V-bottom in stocks since mid to late April well before the historic rally took hold and while many others were talking doom and crashes.  We discussed for weeks in our videos, looking back April 7^th “was what we thought was “The Low” for the overall S&P500 index and USA stocks most likely for the rest of 2025, ex the unforecastable Black swan event.  The -20% bear market correction was largely event induced by the President’s unforeseen tariff policies.

Ex the GFC in 2007-08 and the popping of the speculative Dot.com bubble frenzy in 2000-01, which did proceed longer and deep recessions. History said enough damage had been done and we would V-bottom in a similar fashion as the V-bottoms in the last 20 to 30 years.  And investors, the really good news here?  This V-bottom happened WITHOUT Federal Reserve intervention and interest rate cutting. More Fed cuts are in front of us. Think of that investor, we are at marginal new ATH’s in stocks, and the Fed is paused.

For months we’ve discussed how the charts and the economy look remarkably similar  to the period that was mid Dot/com not peak Dot.com back in late 1998.   The period into the October 1998 bear market selloff caused by the event of the hedge fund LTCM blowing up. After the 3 month 20%+ rally, a few strategists have caught on, are racketing back up their 2025 S&P500 targets, just as we said they would 2 months ago,  and are now preaching bullish upside numbers for the year again.

Just last week with July starting, I was flooded with bullish pieces written largely from those who just missed the v-b0ttom rally, discussing the wonderfully positive seasonal tendency of July to be the second best performing month of the year.

I’m here to bring you good news and bad news.  First the good news. Yes, Investors, there is a Santa Claus and besides late in the year, historically he also comes in July in the stock markets. Here’s a data table showing monthly seasonality of the S&P 500 over the last 15 years.  This data is from Bberg, but most data sources should show the same thing. Historically, July is the second best month of the year for stock returns, lagging behind only November.

Here’s the same seasonality chart using only the last 5 years from Covid on. The numbers sum and average slightly diferently, but the message and outcomes have been the same over the last 5 years.

November has been on average the best month for stocks with July only slightly behind in absolute returns.  Hurray, lets rejoice. Now that we’ve rallied over 20% in 3 months lets get bullish, get long, if you’re a trading get marginned and swing for the fence!! Right?  No, detect the sarcasm.  Why? Because of the reason behind this weeks title. NOTHING but NET.

I love college basketball, loved playing basketball when  was younger.  I watch the NCAA tourney rabidly every year.  I Had a pretty good jump shot back in the day but there are very few needs for a 6’2, slow guy, who cant jump but can shoot from the outside. Even 40 years ago.  Not a lot of demand.  Notice the bold words in the title.  “Nothing” and “net”.  Why because? As much as you might be hearing about the bullish trading window of July, which now has about 9 trading days left, you haven’t been told that historically, if you waked away now and came back in early October?  You would miss nothing, from a total return stock market perspective, net.  In fact, “net” historically

You lose money between month end July and the first 1 or 2 weeks of October. Instead of getting FOMO here, how about taking a deep breadth and exhaling and slowing down and think, hmmm if August-early October tend to be stalls at best and down most years, what do I want to wait for to buy on a 3^rd quarter slow down?  Whether its caused by an minor uptick in inflation from tariffs?  Or A slow down in the real economy due to a pause in demand after a pull forward of inventory building and pull forward buying in front of tariffs?  What stocks and groups would I want to own on the other side of late summer and early fall?  Hence “nothing but net” for this weeks title.

Investors, The pattern remains bullish and yes, historically July is one of the better return months for the S&P500 with earnings and buybacks around the corner. Up and to the right is good.  New ATH’s are not bearish historically.  That said, after rallying for almost 3 months off the April lows, do not expect the pace and percentage gains of stocks to continue at this rate.  Expect the pace to slow.

Investors we expect a normal late summer pull back in the markets, but Investors you most likely won’t see those low levels of April again for quite some time if at all this year.  Many institutions got too bearish near the early April lows and “de-risked” and are already way behind the performance curve in the 2^nd quarter.  If this plays out as Our team has stuck with our 2025-yearend target of 6600 even as stocks sold off into April, and most strategists slashed their targets from over this number to the low 5000’s and are now raising them once again.

Does that mean you shouldn’t add to stocks particularly if you are younger and in saving and accumulation mode?  No, rarely can you pick the absolute level in both price and time, on both the buy side, sell side, and buy side once again, particularly in growth stocks and as we covered in prior videos. New ATHs are NOT bearish!

Regardless of the path for the economy and financial markets in the next few months, the investment team at OHFG will be here manning the ship and adjusting our models and long/short, hedged equity fund where we can.

Until next week, have a blessed weekend, and know that the OHFG team is doing what we can to plan for you and your family’s future regardless of what stage you are at in your career or retirement.

Do you need a retirement plan that goes beyond allocating funds to truly fit your needs? We can help you create a retirement life plan customized for your retirement vision and legacy. Call us at 877-896-0040 or fill out this form for a free consultation: https://click2retire.com/Connect